Republican Tim Sheehy defeats 3-term incumbent to flip Montana US Senate seat

BILLINGS, Mont. (AP) — Republican Tim Sheehy bolstered the GOP’s newly acquired Senate majority with a victory over three-term Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Tester in a contest of national importance that featured a record-setting torrent of spending by the two sides.

Sheehy, a former U.S. Navy SEAL, closely aligned his campaign with Donald Trump and leading conservatives while painting Tester as a corrupt Washington insider. The Republican also promised to address the southern border crisis and curb government regulation.

His victory cements Republican dominance in Montana, where the party now controls every statewide political office. It also reflects a broader shift toward the GOP that has swept much of the American heartland over the past two decades.

Montana’s political profile has changed dramatically since Tester’s first election. It went from a “purple” state that traditionally sent a mix of Democrats and Republicans to higher offices, to one where partisan divisions rule and the GOP enjoys a decisive majority in the state Legislature. Republican Gov. Greg Gianforte won reelection.

Tester — a moderate and the chamber’s only working farmer — was the last member of his party to hold statewide office in Montana and the last Democratic senator from the five-state Northern Plains region. When he first entered office in 2006, Democrats held six of the region’s 10 Senate seats.

The party entered Tuesday’s election with a narrow two-seat majority in the Senate. Republicans took control of the chamber with wins in Ohio, West Virginia and Montana.

Sheehy, 38, told a group of supporters gathered in Bozeman early Wednesday that he’s been serving the country since he was 18 and was honored to continue that service in the Senate.

“We’ve got to make sure that the folks who go to work every day, work with their hands to pay for their own education and to put food on the table for their families, we’ve got to make sure the economy works for them again. That’s going to be our top priority,” Sheehy said.

He sought to dent Tester’s reputation for authenticity by highlighting more than $500,000 that lobbyists and their families donated to the lawmaker during the last election cycle.

The tactic mirrored Tester’s own 2006 campaign, when he beat a three-term Republican incumbent who got ensnared in a Washington, D.C. lobbying scandal.

Sheehy touted his military service and business experience, and pushed past questions raised over a bullet wound that he admitted lying about. He also sought to highlight his private sector success as the founder of an aerial firefighting company — even as the firm’s stock price tumbled.

Sheehy pitched the race as one of national importance for Republicans eager to undo four years of Democratic rule in the Senate and White House.

Hoping to withstand the conservative wave that’s swept the region, Tester, 68, appealed to moderate Republicans and independents. That included pairing his Senate campaign with a successful ballot proposal enshrining abortion rights into the state constitution.

But Republicans still bitter about his 2006 win over former Sen. Conrad Burns had been working for 18 years to topple Tester. This was the first election that he appeared on the ballot alongside Trump, who easily won Montana in each of the last three elections.

Overall, about 7 in 10 Montana voters who identify themselves as moderates voted for Tester both this year and the last time he ran, which was in 2018. However, those voters make up a smaller percentage of the state’s electorate than they did six years ago.

The 2024 electorate also was more strongly Republican, benefitting Sheehy. About 6 in 10 voters said they are Republican or Republican-leaning independents, compared with about 5 in 10 in 2018. Tester only attracted about 10% of that group.

And across the country as well as in Montana, more voters now describe their families as falling behind financially. While Tester held most of those financially strapped voters in 2018, Sheehy won two-thirds of them this cycle.

Tester said he called Sheehy on Wednesday morning to congratulate him and that he plans to go back to working on his farm.

“Look, I’m very, very blessed,” he said. “I’ve had a great 18 years in the United States Senate. I’ve met some incredible people along the way and had the opportunity to do some great things to help move this state forward, move the country forward.”

More than $300 million was spent in this year’s Montana Senate contest, much of it from outside groups. The spending equated to about $500 for each active voter — a record on a per-voter basis.

Tester warned throughout the campaign about “outsiders” such as Sheehy — who came to Montana in 2014 and bought a ranch — driving up housing prices and restricting hunting and fishing access for the general public.

Voter Kael Richards, 22, of Bozeman, cited high housing and land prices as among his concerns and said Montana residents typically resent rich people from out of state like Sheehy. But Richards said he was willing to look beyond that factor for the Senate race and was impressed when he found out Sheehy ran an aerial firefighting business.

“Tester’s been there so long, since we’ve grown up we’ve known nothing but Tester,” Richards said. “I feel like there needs to be a change.”

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Hanson reported from Great Falls, Montana.